Influences of the Forrester Effect and the Bullwhip Effect

A supply chain management is the broad concept which includes the management of the entire supply chain from the supplier of raw materials through the manufacturer, wholesaler, and retailer to the end consumer. However, certain dynamics exist among firms in the supply chain thereby causing inaccuracies and volatility of orders from the retailer to the primary suppliers and that these cause for operations, say, readjustments further upstream in the supply chain. The Forrester effect and the bullwhip effect influence the supply chain directly or indirectly through the components in the supply chain like manufacturers, suppliers, wholesalers, distributors, retailers, and customers in many ways. Bullwhip effect, also known as Forrester effect occurs when the demand order changes in the supply chain are amplified as they moved up the supply chain. It is termed as bullwhip effect because of the large magnitude of disturbances in the chain caused by a small disturbance at one end of the chain.Thus, in a typical supply chain for a consumer product, with less sales variation, there seem to be a pronounced variability in the retailers' orders to the wholesalers. Considerably, four major causes of the bullwhip effect have been identified. These are: 1. Demand forecast updating: this is the readjustment of demand forecasts by upstream managers as a result of future product demand signal. Forecasting is usually based on the order history from a company's immediate customers.Traditionally,every company in a supply chain usually prepares product forecasting for its production scheduling, capacity planning, inventory control and material requirement planning. It is contended that the signal from demand forecasting is a major contributor to the bullwhip effect. For example, if a manager uses, say, exponential smoothing (future forecast is always updated as demand increases) the order sent to the supplier reflects the amount needed to replenish the stocks to meet the requirements for future demands and safety stocks which might be considered necessary. 2. Order batching: Companies place orders with upstream organisations in a supply chain, using some inventory monitoring or control. As demand comes in, inventory is depleted but the company may not immediately place an order with the supplier. It often batches or accumulates demands before issuing an order. Sometimes the supplier cannot handle frequent order processing because of the substantial time and cost involved so instead of ordering frequently, companies may order weekly or fortnightly. This leads to two forms of order batching; periodic and pushing ordering. Many manufacturers place purchase orders with suppliers when they run their materials requirement planning (MRP) systems monthly; resulting in monthly ordering with suppliers. This is a periodic ordering. As an illustration, for a company that places orders once a month from its suppliers, the supplier faces a highly erratic stream of orders. Demands go up at one time during the month, followed by no demands for the rest of the month. This periodic ordering amplifies distortions and disruptions and contributes to the bullwhip effect. A similar effect becomes prevalent in push ordering phenomenon.Here, a company experiences regular surge in demand. As a result, customers ‘push' orders on the company periodically. Although the periodic surges in demand by some customers would be insignificant suppose all ordering are not made at the same time, however, it does not happen that way. The orders are more likely to overlap and cause the bullwhip effect to be felt most. 3. Price Fluctuations: Because of attractive offers like ‘buy one get one free'(BOGOF),price and quantity discounts, rebates and so on usually provided by manufacturers to distributors in the grocery industry, items are bought in advance of what is actually needed. This is referred to as ‘forward-buying' which is known to account for about $75bn to $100bn of inventory in the grocery industry in the United States. The result is that customers buy in bigger quantities that do not reflect their immediate needs with the view to stock for future use.Thus,these special price schemes, lead to speculative buying which is considered as costly to the supply chain. For example, Kotler reports that trade deals and consumer promotion constitute 47% and 28% of distributors and manufacturers respectively of their total promotion budgets. Considering a situation when a product's price is pegged low through the price schemes, more would be bought by the customer than actually needed. As the price returns to normal, the customer stops buying in order to use up its inventory. This triggers an irregular buying pattern of the customer which does not reflect its consumption pattern, and the variation of the buying quantities is much bigger than the variation of the consumption rate leading to the bullwhip effect or Forrester effect. Such a practice was called â€Å"the dumbest marketing ploy ever†. 4. Rationing and short gaming: rationing usually becomes the norm when demands exceed supply. Manufacturers allocate the amount in proportion to the amount ordered. During rationing customers exaggerate their real needs when they order for fear that the orders might be in short supply.Customers' overreaction in anticipation of shortages results when organisations and individuals make sound, rational economic decisions and ‘game' the potential rationing. The effect of this gaming is that little information is given to the supplier on the product's real demand by the customers' orders. The gaming practice is very common. Increases in orders are made not because of an increase in consumption but due to anticipation. Actually, the bullwhip or the Forrester effect is not just an economic error. Its influence on a company's supply chain management could be felt as well in a positive way. Thus, these four major causes of bullwhip effect somewhat influence or affect the supply chain management in number of ways: – Conflict between supply chain players. This is brought about as a result of no coordination amongst individual demand forecasts based on each supply chain player's sales history or strategy. – Large demand and supply fluctuations result in the need for high inventories to prevent stock outs. Because of the fluctuations in the supply chain, companies try to keep more stock than needed in order to avoid stock out and its attendant problems like loss of profit, customers and market share in some situations. – There is poor customer service as all demand might not be met. Customers are upset when their demands are not met especially from the suppliers they seem to rely on .This is as a result of the bullwhip effect. – Production scheduling and capacity planning becomes difficult due to large order swings. Because of the large distortions in demand due to bullwhip effect, capacity planning-the task of setting effective capacity of the operation in order that it can stand any demands placed on it-and production scheduling which is a detailed timetable in planning showing at what time or date jobs should start and when they should end to ensure that customers demand is met, are largely affected. This is known to usually affect several other performance indicators like costs, say due to under-utilization of capacity; revenues, working capital due to building up finished goods inventory prior to demand; quality by hiring temporary staff; speed could also be enhanced by surplus provision; dependability of supply will also be affected due to any unexpected disruptions; and flexibility will also be enhanced due to surplus capacity. – Extra plant expansion to meet peak demand. Another influence on the supply chain brought about by the Forrester effect or the bullwhip effect is to look for an additional plant capacity or expansion to cater for demand either as a result of low stock or increased demand which were distorted as the bullwhip effect struck. The implication is it can lead to large distortions and high costs. – High costs for corrections-large unexpected orders or supply problems necessitate expedited shipments and overtime. This might also affect the planning of the company's transport and logistics in terms of additional handling and administrative costs though there will be some benefits, the supply chain is affected. – Other influences are the following: collaboration, direct sales, smaller order batches or more frequent re-supply, unexpected shortages in inventory, price fluctuation, demand behaviour, stock market trading, information-sharing and profit variation. Notwithstanding these,there are some possible ways and means to minimise or reduce the bullwhip effect. The various initiatives for possible solution to the bullwhip effect are based on the underlying coordination mechanism. These mechanisms are namely, information sharing,;by this demand information at a downstream site is relayed upstream in time for processing; channel alignment, this is the coordination of pricing, transportation, inventory planning, and ownership between the upstream and downstream sites in a supply chain; and operational efficiency, are the activities that are pursued to improve performance like reduced costs and lead-time. In the light of these three mechanisms, some of the critical areas that can be looked at to reduce the impact of variability on the supply chain include aligning incentives to overall supply chain performance objectives; developing trust and contractual agreements between supply chain partners; approach such as delayed differentiation, designing for commonality; direct sales, vendor managed inventory, continuous replenishment; multi-echelon inventory control policies; lead time reduction through operational efficiency and design; lot size reduction using efficient transportation and distribution systems; price stabilization and uniform pricing. First and foremost understanding the causes of the bullwhip effect can help managers to find strategies to combat or curb it. Companies must make concerted efforts through various means available in their supply chain management in order to deal with these inconsistencies.

The Impact of Private Education On Expatriate Teachers In Saudi Arabia Research Proposal

The Impact of Private Education On Expatriate Teachers In Saudi Arabia - Research Proposal Example The main objectives of this study are: to gauge the emotional, social and financial impact on the expatriate teachers of their jobs in private educational institutes in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; to explore the difficulties that they may have faced due to the changed educational system; to assess if there has been any change in the teaching methods of the expatriate teachers, and if they intended to adapt the changes when they return to teaching in their native countries. The current study proposes to use a descriptive research method that helps in elaborating upon the existing state of affairs. This study is hoped to be designed so that the data collected is authentic and accurate. In order to ensure this, both the secondary data, via a literature review, and primary data, through a questionnaire are to be used. A rigid research design is to be adopted to reduce bias and improve reliability. For this a sample is to be selected on the basis of convenience sampling, and data collected via interview method using an open ended questionnaire. The data collection is qualitative in nature as the responses are proposed to be recorded by the researcher verbatim and later analyzed, again using a qualitative approach. The sample for the current research will be taken from among the expatriate teachers community living in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The teachers who are proposed to be included in the study would be from elementary schools, high schools and coll eges and would have spent between 1 to 5 years in Saudi Arabia.

The Impact of Lupus Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

The Impact of Lupus - Essay Example As Petri puts it, "Instead of fighting infection, the immune system attacks 'self/ the person's normal tissues" (qtd. in Meadows 29). An examination of the causes, symptoms and treatment of lupus helps one to better understand the physiological impact the disease has, while a look at families coping with lupus and certain other symptoms illuminate the psychological aspects. Researchers have attempted to combat lupus by pinning down its origin or causal factors but thus far they have been largely unsuccessful. There are many factors that appear to be closely associated with lupus, and a combination of these factors may be responsible for its origin. Experts believe that it develops from complicated genetic and environmental factors. The fact that it is mainly the women who contract this disease and that it is more prevalent in certain races (Asians, Hispanics, and African - Americans) point to genetic determinants. Moreover there is some evidence that it runs in families. Environmental factors, such as prolonged exposure to sunlight are believed to trigger dormant symptoms. There have also been reported cases of drug - induced lupus, where drugs like hydralazine, procainamide, sulphasalazine, minocycline, may aggravate symptoms or cause similar symptoms in otherwise healthy individuals (Hughes 100). Lupus is a complex illness that may focus its atta... The range of severity also varies. Severe forms of the disease are easier to identify than milder forms. Because of the disconcerting array of symptoms, that may not exclusively suggest lupus, physicians are more likely to make the diagnosis when the disease is well advanced. This results in an unfavorable prognosis for the patient. Skin rashes, weakness, and general fatigue, muscular pain, sudden loss of hair, ulcers, and inflammation of membranes surrounding internal organs are believed to be the most common symptoms. Patients may also show a history of miscarriages and migraine attacks. Lahita and Phillips describe Raynaud's phenomenon as a characteristic syndrome, where "the toes and the fingers turn red, white, and blue because spasms in their small arteries stop the blood flow" (81). Another reportedly common symptom is the malar rash, which spreads across the cheek in the shape of a butterfly. Stress, depression, and psychosis have also been reported as likely psychological sy mptoms. Treatment of Lupus Since there is no cure for lupus, treatment focuses on containing or controlling the illness. The symptoms are treated and with time it is hoped that the ill effects will recede never to come back. As the symptoms are so varied, treatment programs are devised in keeping with the particular needs of the individual. Appropriate medications as well as lifestyle changes are advocated. Medications are the preferred mode of treatment for severe cases. The drugs used in the treatment program include, Non - steroidal anti - inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), Antimalarials, Steroids, and Immunosuppressives (Hughes 35). The use of these drugs causes side - effects, which in some cases are worse than the disease itself and endanger the long - term health of the

Museum research paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Museum - Research Paper Example Most of the animals used in the painting all can cause harm and even lead to loss of human life. However, there is some twist when it comes to the bird. The whole idea of the painting is to symbolize a society where a man needs to be careful when ruling or running his life. The elephant depicts danger that is huge and can be detected from a distance. Such calamities strike severely if not dealt with before hand. The flamingo shows the beauty of the land. Such people may be good and appreciating in life and end up making it even sweeter. Despite the good aspect of peace with the bird, there lies an even bigger danger with the snake. The snake is used symbolically to point at issues, which creep in slowly by slowly and cause detrimental hazards. This may include addictions, drug abuse, failing to service a mortgage amongst others. The bitter peel is that such troubles are nearer than we thought and we are at times blind to them. The land life as depicted in painting appears to be safer compared to water life. The set of aquatic animals the artist uses are known to cause serious damage to human life. The hippo, crocodile, the shark and the polar bear keep man off these areas. The hippo is a silent ruthless creature; the crocodile on the other hand is a slow yet powerful animal that kills its prey using its powerful jaws. The shark sharps teeth and sensory system is able to detect blood miles away and faster to catch the prey. The polar bear has sharp claws and powerful arm that tear flesh very easily and fast. Happy human life can only be achieved by careful balance and keen consideration of every move made in life (Hall 17). The man is able to dominate at the center with careful balancing all his surroundings. Even though the snake is dangerous, man should device a way of maintaining close relationship and be alert of all its impending dangers (Hubbard 149). Where you can avoid trouble, keep them a

Masculinity in sport presented by contemporary media Essay

Masculinity in sport presented by contemporary media - Essay Example ch on "Masculinity in Sport Presented by Contemporary Media" deals with the varied aspects associated with male athleticism and the manner in which it is represented in popular media. The public representation of male athletes in the media is dominated by sport stars; portraying a "macho image" and who are often addressed with male-specific metaphors deliberately framed with the sole objective of monopolizing mens physical force, in the arena of men’s sport. This can be further substantiated by the description of masculinity in sport as depicted by Gerhard Vinnai (1976, Pp. 74): â€Å"The importance of rock-hard muscles, absence of sentimentality in harsh duels, acceptance of frequently painful injuries and ability to consume vast quantities of beer after the game . . . characterises the moral atmosphere among the sportsmen† The concept of masculinity in mediated sport is debated, and challenged, widely during the recent decade, by scholars and academicians alike, and holds great relevance, particularly when viewed against the backdrop of a rapidly emerging heterogeneous audience which comprises of gays and emergence of seemingly â€Å"effeminate† sports, and the rise in the number of viewers having diverse values and attitude and media consumption habits. In order to examine, explore and analyse the influence and role of mass media in representing masculinity in sport, this study uses the secondary research, qualitative research methodology, whereby various research articles, media articles, news published in tabloids, books, television adverts and sport magazines are studied, to gather evidence required to substantiate the research hypothesis and research objectives listed in the previous section of this paper. This study mostly relies on secondary research and all the observations made are through literature review, and existing available material on the subject under study. This study is divided into three distinct chapters wherein the concept of hegemonic

The French Revolution in Russian Intellectual Life Article

The French Revolution in Russian Intellectual Life - Article Example In 1905, Russia was defeated by Japanese and following the same year there was the peaceful parade of workers in St. Petersburg (later known as Petrograd) was open fired by Tsarist troops. Following the general strike, Tsar created first Russian constitution and the State Duma, an elected parliamentary body. But Nicholas always wanted to retain autocracy. (S?lapentoch, 2008).   During World War I, Russia suffered great losses and had millions of causalities. Nicholas then went to take control of the army himself in 1915, but at that time there were no such trained people nor any supplies of arm left to fight. This World War I period proved to be a great blow to Tsar’s rule. (St. Petersburg life) On 23rd February 1917, the festival of International Women’s Day broke out in a protest in the streets of St. Petersburg (Russian Capital), against the food shortage. Gradually everybody joined the strike including men, students, and all working classes. Even military forces t urned rebellious against Tsar and shot their own military officers when they asked the forces to shot the people in procession on the orders of Nicholas. This is known as the February Revolution. (St. Petersburg life) With so much unrest prevailing finally Nicholas and tried to hand over his powers to his brother Michael but he cannot become leader until he was elected via elections. The Provisional Government was temporarily formed by the members of Duma until the elections held. Also, a Petrograd Soviet Organization came into being by the trade union of workers and soldiers who favored Socialism than democratic reforms. (St. Petersburg life) In 1917, Lenin decided to return to Russian as he got a chance to rule Russia. Lenin was against the Tsar rule and was under arrest during his reign but now he got a chance to lead his party, Bolsheviks. He entered by the permission of German authorities as they have won the war and Russia was under control. Lenin was welcomed by Russians and after getting the control over powers, he immediately condemns the Petrograd Soviet and Provisional Government and tried to introduced Communism. In summers of 1917, Lenin tried to bring another revolution by overthrowing Provisional and Petrograd Government but was not succeeded as Kerensky, one of the important figures of Petrograd and Provisional Government condemns it and troops were arrived in the city suppressing the dissidents and accused Bolsheviks of being in collision with Germans. Lenin escaped to Finland and others were arrested. Lenin didn’t stop and continued his planning. It was not too late when Kerensky had to face political setbacks and somehow he had to contact Bolsheviks for military assistance when he feared Kornilov was aiming for military dictatorship. The Bolsheviks aided him and hence, took the powers by winning majority votes within the Petrograd and Moscow Soviet. At last, Leon Trotsky was elected as the president. In October of 1917, Lenin now fina lly decided to capitalize his party’s popularity by replacing the Provisional Government with Bolsheviks. On 24th October, the troops entered St. Petersburg capturing all major buildings and positions in the city.

Comparison of Jewish Passover with Roman Catholic Last Supper and Essay

Comparison of Jewish Passover with Roman Catholic Last Supper and Easter - Essay Example On the other hand, the Easter holiday is celebrated by Christians to demonstrate the significance of the painful death of Jesus on the cross for the sake of sin redemption on humankind. The celebrations that are held to mark these events are usually in the accompaniment of beliefs, performance of rituals, and a recall of the history of the real happenings. The leadership in every Christian movement is charged with the responsibility to lead their congregations in conducting such events. The scriptures of the Bible containing relevant information in regards to the events are duly emphasized via repeated reading sessions during the commemoration seasons. Additionally, every aspect of the above issues has a comparison with another in another practice in the Christianity realms. The practices, in every form of Christian group, entail performance of reverent worship, whose conduction is similar in some groups and dissimilar in others, though all directed to the almighty God. Nevertheless, fervent connections are in existence between the Jewish Passover with Roman Catholic Last Supper and Easter, where every practice in the Old Testament is balanced and linked to another in the New Testament, making the celebrations to ultimately be intertwined (Cobb John and McAfee Ward 134). The discussion in this paper seeks to establish a comparison of Jewish Passover with Roman Catholic Last Supper and Easter. The comprehension of this discussion is motivated by investigating a variety of issues, the comparisons between the issues, as well as a critical analysis of the connection between them. Comparison of Jewish Passover with Roman Catholic Last Supper and Easter The Jewish Passover and the Canadian Roman Catholic last supper and Easter have significant similarities. They are both symbolic events used to commemorate an act that was conducted in the traditional times and was meant for today’s significance. The practices and believes are centered on worship for God becaus e of his redemption power for his people from suffering, which has a significance of demonstrating God’s mercy to his creation. The Jewish Passover portrays the mercies for redemption from slavery, while the Easter and last super portray the mercies in regards to offer of Jesus on the cross. The beliefs of these events are centered on the saving power of God, and that the commemoration of the events brings spiritual revival in the hearts of the believers. Moreover, the execution of the practices is only through the way of conducting worship in a tabernacle, conducting rituals and reverent reading of scriptures of relevance. All these celebrations are always celebrated following the appearance of full moon, especially in the month of March, April, or May. Nevertheless, the traditions have it that Easter and the last super cannot be celebrated before the Jewish Passover (Combier-Donovan et al 118). However, pronounced differences are identifiable in relation to rituals and hist ory of every practice. The Jewish Passover dates back to the Old Testament scriptural representation, when the Israelites were in slavery in Egypt. The sending of Moses by God and